Saturday, May 28, 2016

Why Trump will lose in Cleveland.

Trump is relying on bound delegates to win but those arguing that the binding of delegates is disallowed in the party are now organized and publishing all the details. The Binding wording added in 2012 to block Ron Paul is now being exposed as only really valid for the 2012 convention and is up for revision in the first hours of the rules committee. It also did not work, see below.

Curly Haugland is fighting hard against bound candidates. The PDF linked to in the above link is free.

In simple terms it argues that a change in the wording of the rules was the dirty truck of 2012 and almost no one today supports it except Trump. Trump does not have the numbers in the rules committees and all delegates are unbound in the rules votes with Cruz way past 50% in those votes. This is why Cruz has persisted in getting his delegates into any vacant Trump spots. The Pledges on the first votes are unenforceable. They contradict all previous versions of the RNC rules except the 1976 one that was revoked in 1980.

The parties are private entities not governments. Corporate rules apply and the courts have confirmed the difference every time.
Also it's not been confirmed that over 17 Ron Paul supporters in the Nevada's delegation, 2012 republican convention, did not vote their pledge to Romney. They did not have the numbers but were not penalized and their floor vote, sans pledge, was fully recorded as a Ron Paul vote. That was the majority of the Nevada's delegation beaching their pledge in 2012. It never even made the news did it?

The election is in November the caucuses are not elections. Under American law they are all beauty contests and always were.

Trump keeps running foul of the residency rule in many states. A delegate must be a resident of the district that he or she represents. Here is the Clause for California. "What are the requirements for being a delegate? You must be a registered Republican and a resident of the Congressional District you are representing. You must attend the Delegation Meeting on Saturday, June 25, 2016 near LAX. You must commit to vote for the presidential candidate by whom you are selected."

In some cases Trump has either not found anyone or has not even submitted a list of prospective delegates. Note the last line " whom you are selected." If trump has not submitted the names then what does that wording mean?

Even rolling stone gets the implications. "It is exactly the kind of thing Trump -- back when he still had a rival for the nomination -- would have railed against as evidence the system is "rigged" against his bid. But it's not part of an establishment conspiracy to snatch the nomination from under him; it's just embarrassing proof that team Trump has failed to execute some of the most basic functions required of a competitive presidential campaign. " ... "Cruz was able to win the vast majority of the Washington delegates because, when his campaign still existed, staffers put together lists of their preferred delegates -- a state convention voters' guide. The Trump campaign (and the Kasich camp, for that matter) didn't perform this extremely basic task. "I never saw a slate for Trump candidates," Crabtree says."
           You dance with the guy that brung you.

Trump is conspicuously silent on this and it has happened in all of the west coast states. He either does not understand the process or is not intending to win but is taking that act all the way so as to leave Ted Cruz the only man standing. I still can't tell which. This failure to get delegates lined up, even after being called in by Reince Priebus for a lecture on the point, does not help Hillary Clinton it only helps Ted Cruz.

In the 12th district of California; Central San Francisco, Nancy Pelosi's district, Trump is allocated Peter Thiel a known libertarian and past Cruz supporter, House majority leader Kevin McCarthy, former House committee chairman Darrell Issa and congressman Duncan Hunter Jr. There is no way Trump came up with that list. They are bound but How can the RNC sanction a billionaire and two sitting congressmen for not voting their pledge?

Cruz may beat Trump without the pledged delegate question. California is "winner take most" the worst worded electoral jargon on planet earth. In reality the state is proportional but at the district level. The winner of each district takes all 3 delegates but if Cruz gets 14 districts Trump is blocked at 1236. Trump only got 60% in Oregon unopposed.

This map is useful it shows how California's districts votes. As Gary North says go and vote against the Tax and bond propositions (even anarchist got to the polls to vote against these things). This is one of the best indicators of political positions. Personalities and political popularity is not in play in such a vote. Proposition was a special tax to pay for education (teachers inflated pensions) in bankrupt California. It failed.,_2012#/media/File:CA2012Prop30-NoColor.svg

Yes Associated Press says Trump already has 1239 but they are assuming California is Winner take all and they are surveying unpledged delegates without saying who, what question they're asking and when they did the survey.

Some think that if Trump loses at the convention there will be a backlash with Trump supporters however that does not work out either. We have seen record turnout at the primaries but Trump has only got 30 to 40 % of the vote. That means that 60 - 70 % of that massive turn out was there to oppose him. It's bigger than the total November 2012 republican vote. The christian conservatives are activated. Only a percentage of Trump supporters will stay home.

The religious people supporting him tend to be new-age Pentecostals powered by dodgy prophesies. A prompt re-interpretation of the vision follows every such folly.

In other words people will vote this time around. If Cruz wins at the convention the huge collective sigh of relief will result in people that would not have supported him six months ago would support him. Even the View TV show that cut Trump off mid sentence would have Cruz gladly as a replacement. He has proved that he has the people and the organization for a campaign.

If the financial crisis hit Cruz's first term he will take it and use it to push through the reforms that are needed. Any one else would just take damage and make the crisis deeper. The anti-Cruz members of the republican party will not be able to attack the man that faced down Trump.

I don't expect to be believed. However if I am right you will be the one person in the room that will understand what just happened! God is in control. He needs no organizing committees to set things up. If I am right he is putting someone in place, a Goldwater republican, to take the coming crisis and turn them into reform.

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Republican fun and chaos.

Now the real fun starts.

Ted Cruz has withdrawn. Trump will have 1237 at the republican convention at Cleveland next month.

I was of the opinion that Trump was running a decoy campaign for Cruz. I still think that that was part of someone's plan but it went wrong. I don't think Trump or Cruz were involved. Look for someone Trump has sidelined.

Trump has to fight Hillary but with what? Hillary is an easy scandal ridden candidate but has Trump been paying attention? All the attacks on her have already been made.

Now that Trump is only battling Kasich can he round on Kasich's history, background and policies? Again does he know them? Do they differ enough from his positions?

The greatest danger to Trump is always Trump. He has a month to go and plenty of opportunities to foul up.
Also now that Cruz is out of the picture, or so it seems, the media that has been supportive of Trump, because they hate Cruz's Christian conservatism, are now freed up to try and destroy Trump. And you know that the NeverTrump people will not let up.

Before it gets to the first vote Ted Cruz still has hundreds of delegates that are obligated to vote for Trump but who were banking on it being a hung first vote. What do they do now? If Trump stuffs up further some may decide to do the unthinkable at the first vote; Abstain.

Technically this means they have resigned and they could gladly and loudly do so. That is why all states have alternates. These alternates will step up to an unprecedented second First Vote. Some may vote and some may again abstain. Whole state delegations may take a stand.

Yes it would trigger a brawl, a genuine fist fight and the genuine risk of ending the republican political party. It would be an active decision by some to kick off and run another party by 2020, this year is not possible. A new conservative republican party for 2020. Would it win. No but it may get seats in some state houses. We will see thousands going over to the libertarians.

As several people have pointed out the US Two party system was always a coalition of multiple micro parties mistaken for factions. It only retained its position because other parties were blocked from registering and getting on the voter rolls and ballot papers. However the libertarians destroyed that barrier in all states a few years ago.

Trump would win on the second first vote but even that will be disputed by some because a second first vote is a contradiction. Some will say that the resignations on a first vote makes the next vote the second vote with freed delegates. Even Reince Priebus would be battling for order right beside Trump against that idea. It may come down to Cruz taking the microphone as conciliator. That would work but it would also speak much. Remember the thing will be watched by billions this year.

If no resignations occur Trump will be the nominee and the question will turn to the vice president vote. Rule 40 comes into play if they are still on the books.

Here it is in full. Read it carefully.
(a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.
(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall announce the votes for each candidate whose name was presented in accordance with the provisions of paragraph (b) of this rule. Before the convention adjourns sine die, the chairman of the convention shall declare the candidate nominated by the Republican Party for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States.
(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.

This means that Cruz is the only Vice President Trump can name on the day. Cruz has been the only person that Trump has ever talked about. Few people can think of an alternative.

This also means that if Trump is to pick any one else he and Cruz must co-operate in the rules committee to get that rule scrapped on day one. This problem would have excluded Carly Fiorina too. Yet Trumps people will see rule 40 as essential to block Kasich or anyone John Boehner likes. Oh what a wonderful corner the party has painted itself into.

It gets Better. The law was designed to block Ron Paul from any post but the Ron Paul delegates got angry and, then got organised and, now have a significant position on the rules committee. As semi libertarians they care about the issues than the party. As mostly tea party people (Paul), Trump and Cruz rules delegates see this as an outsider versus insiders battle. Tea party versus Rino not Trump versus Cruz.

Trump and Cruz have fought hard, very hard. Could too much damage have been done? Possibly but remember Ronald Reagan and George H Bush fought very hard too in 1980. Yet they teamed up. Most don't know that John Adams was the first Vice President and he ran against George Washington not with him. He was what in most other political systems would be called the leader of the opposition in the Vice President post. He hated it!

Would Cruz say no? It will be hard to say either thing. The questions will be: Can I tame this man? Who better to tame a lawless man than a lawyer that topped all his classes.
Will I lose all chances of running later if Trump or Hillary wins and I'm on the side lines?
Would America survive Trump or Hillary and still be intact in 2020?
Or will I be a guaranteed the presidency if Trump gets bored, impeached or just shot?
Would Trump run for a second term? That is highly unlikely.
How much damage to my reputation can I take and can I blame Rule 40b?
If Trump names someone really stupid that will make Ted Cruz's decision for him; 60-80% will demand him citing the rule.

As I said it's not really one factionalised party any more it's three or four jammed into a box called RNC. The same is emerging in the DNC too. The hard left, students and teachers, socialist faction is backing Bernie. While the wall street left, many Muslim lobby groups and a gaggle of aging feminists and LGBT activists are backing Hillary. The age of political fission is upon us.

It will be a hell of a show. Thankfully God is in control. It will be a day of Judgement but will it be judgement on the country or just the party? We shall see.