Friday, December 18, 2009

Climategate cop-15 was I right or what?

My predictions on Gary Norths site have in part been borne out.
Also found here.
Cop-15 turned into a giant bargaining table where extreme things were proposed to drive everyone to a minimal compromise. Two rival proposals came out: one billing the first world and one billing the third world for the cost. Neither we meant to be signed. Both were decoys for the screaming mob. Meanwhile the heads of state, working in private, settled on a pact which promised everything, enforces nothing and pays a pittance to the loudest of the third world and the low islands.See.

No one was scapegoated in public but when Phelim McAleer when through the conference in a polar bear suit calling for Phil Jones, people all knew who that meant. They swore at him, threw things at him and tried to interfere with the camera and sound man. Phil Jones is the climatologist at the heart f the UEA CRU scandal. Polar bear suits were banned soon after.

Behind closed doors I suspect he (Phil not the polar bear) got mentioned a lot. Could any government have mentioned climategate in public. Probably not. The Cop-15 conference was teaming with true believers that were so fanatical that even the Presidential body guards of a dozen countries combined could not have held them at bay.

So what's the midnight deal.
The key features of note are that the targets a set in terms of temperature not CO2. This means that the 2 degrees target will be met by all because there is no real warming. Governments can later report on the current cooling trend as if its a new discovery and back away from CO2 reduction and commitments.
Expect a lot on negative feed backs soon. Its the suppressed science that the CRU etc were trying to keep out of peer review.

The other thing is that its non binding CO2 commitments and non binding financial commitments. None of there will be enforceable or enforced. With inflation expected in two years the amounts are trivial. Pledges to pay for solar energy technology depend on the cost of that technology, those costs are falling but with the dollar falling faster this means few renewables than the free-market, free from both Keynesian policies and government subsidies, would have delivered.
A few tens of billions have been promised to the third world and low islands. May third world counties can't survive without handouts from the west, they would get that money somehow.

The key game at cop-15 was to get out of commitments while all professing to be committed. In the light of the climategate it was not about saving their seats at the next election, its about saving their party for the election after that. This was a process of backing a way from the man eating polar bear with as few sudden moves as possible.



Are there any secret promises to scape goat the CRU, you-bet-cha. If governments aren't gunning for them then half the NGO's will be when their funding, both government and donations, collapse next year.

Lastly there's a huge blizzard descending on Copenhagen. Everyone may be stuck for a few days. Some noted that huge numbers of people flew in private Jets. These have been parked at smaller airports across the region. Their stuck. Al Gore may have to hitch a ride home on the Rainbow Warrior. What happens when a few thousand Bureaucrats, a quarter of a million bored but angry NGO's, communists and anarchists all get stranded in a snow storm together? The cops have had it with cold riot gear and frozen batons. Its not going to be fun. Technically their contract with the UN ends tomorrow.

The blizzard also means that many heads of state will be getting home earlier than most of their minders. Once clear of the big green monster how many will speak their minds? You could see something of this in the interviews after midnight. Questions of who's to blame or why decisions went the way they went are met with a pensive pause. You could see the words in their heads. “Don't mention climategate, don't mention the Hadley emails.” And then off they went with the usual waffle of meaningless answers.

I haven't had so much fun in years. I'm not a Prophet I'm not even Profitable. I should probably fix that.

Climategate – Declare Victory and go home.

[First posted on Gary North's web site on Dec 05,2009. Dr North has used it on the site's front page and on the Lew Rockwell site. With my permission. I'm posting here so its searchable. One for the history books.]

Could it be? Heads of state are changing their schedules: heading to Copenhagen later in the conference.

I've seen the climategate data, it is huge. It will kill the Climatic Research Institute. The emails are not fatal, bad but not fatal. They indicate bias, manipulation, junk science, criminal behaviours and fraud but that would not convince heads of state to change their plans. However there's raw data and blocks of code attached to these emails. Forget smoking guns; this is the whole armoury. With bloody finger prints and all.

People have now had time to analyze the data and code as well as the emails.

Questions are being asked by too many entities.

What breakthrough could they possibly have in mind? What sudden glimmer of progress could they possibly see? Are they just rushing to action while the mainstream media is silent? Acting before the majority of old media watchers [victims] catch on?

I've done climatology and international environmental law. The process does not adapt well to new information but it does work well when it switches to the blame game mode.

I don't think a cover-up will work for several reasons. It may not even be tried.

1. Government hackers in CIA, MI5 and a dozen other intelligence agencies will probably have hacked their way into Hadley and other institutes to check the data for their political masters. Obama, Hu Jintao, Medvedev and even Brown may not like climategate but you can bet your bottom dollar that they are checking to see if the hacked/leaked emails are real and match the data in the institutes hard drives.
2. Anyone acquainted with Fabian socialism will know that when a Fabians' plot is exposed the networks generally turn on those members sloppy enough to get caught in the act: i.e., Jones and Mann. Obama is very much a master of this fabian socialist tactic, dropping hot potatoes faster than anyone I know.
3. The British parliament entitlements leak has resulted in a majority of the politicians there not renominating. The parliament after the next election will be clean skins. Untainted with the errors of the past. The election may also go to the conservatives with the Liberal democrats forming the main opposition. Labour could be decimated. All the investigators will probably know this. There's no point protecting the status quo, if its already busted or in flux.
4. Many of the investigators will be personally more concerned with the economy and keeping their own jobs. Few will be climatologists. All will face carbon taxes. If anthropogenic climate change fades away it costs them nothing. If they cover up and succeed; it still costs them much via carbon taxes. If their cover-up is blown it costs them everything.
5. To the few 'disinterested' climatologists in the investigation, the fall of Jones and Mann from the top will be of benefit. It raises their chances of promotion. Everyone moves up a rung in the bureaucratic hierarchy.
6. Lastly there is an internal division within the UN over the Food verses Fuel debate. It's just as bogus as climate change but it's a strongly-held position and climategate undermines one side, those pushing biofuels. The other is waiting in the wings to cry "we need global governance to avoid famine."

There thus good reasons to throw the Hadley institute and its sister institutes to the wolves and cry victim, 'We were conned!' Many more reasons to cover your tail and scapegoat these scientists than to stand by your local 'warmist' and fall with him or her. I think we will see a radical change of direction. With heads of state ordering the IPCC to do a massive review, perhaps acting on the biggest demand of the skeptics and publishing all the data. Declaring that the problem is smaller than expected so after a review we will implement a minimal-cost no-regrets climate plan.

Such a plan would cost much less because they could throw out the expensive cap and trade and most of the first-world to third-world subsidies by setting much lower targets. Scrap the taxes and industry-destroying clauses but leave in a small wedge of bureaucracy [Government always grows]. That would turn COP-15 into a giant union deal. One where they come to the table with a huge list of demands, most of which are unreasonable bargaining chips to be thrown on the table, while you manoeuvre your opponent to the position of perceiving your small but still significant demand as quite reasonable.

I hope I'm wrong. A cover-up is more fun and, when it comes unstuck, does more damage to the status quo. A massive stuff-up at Copenhagen just as the truth hits the mainstream will be devastation for the players in this global game. Particularly those facing elections soon.

While we all agree that governments are somewhere between hopeless and dangerous we all know that the one thing they do best is protecting their own vested interests and positions at the top.

As for the perpetrators of the fraud: Jones, Mann, etc., "Bernie" Madoff got 100 years for stealing or loosing a few billion dollars from a few thousand people. The climate mob have ripped off or wasted ten times as much with billions of victims.

Or to put it another way: "If someone did a graph like this in a stock prospectus, he would be jailed." ~ Jo Nova, on Michael Mann's hockey stick graph.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

An own goal for the CRU Hockey team.

What if there was no whistle blower at the UEA or CRU.
What if FOIA.zip was not produced and released by a noble whistle blower but was created and released to the wild accidentally by Phil Jones et al. Could it be that Phil Jones may be the whistle blower but doesn't know it.

OK It sounds nuts but bear with me. The theory is a bit complex but its an exquisitely ironic and too good to ignore.

We know Phil Jones and the others wanted to delete the data and emails to cover-up their actions and errors from those true climatologists that want to ask key questions like, which stations did you 'not' use in the climate graphs.

We all should know that simply shifting a folder or email into the windows bin does not actually destroy the data. It relabels it and/ or changes the file tables. Any digital detective looking at the computer would know where to look for these 'deleted' files and folders. It also does not clear temp folders or logs of file usage. A cybernetic officer plod looking for digital records that are requested under a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) would just load a little disk that looked behind the fa├žade of the trash bin first.

Phil needs help. Phil needs a program that sweeps his hard drive clean, sanitises it, wipes the data permanently, invisibly and irreversibly. He needs something like this or this or maybe even this. He needs untraceable eraser software.

I haven't used these. Nor do I think he did. These are just examples of what's out there. There are indications that this is how the deletions were done but there's a catch.

I've always thought these programs a little suspect. If I were a frustrated computer forensics' officer working on fraud and vice all day for years this technology would be public enemy number one. Every other case I would be left suspecting that these programs are being used to cover up the crime. However I would also realise that its the ideal tool for the prefect sting.

I think officer plod somewhere in the world made his own data eraser and distributed it. I'm not saying the above three programs in the links are it. There's been a lot of turnover in the field since 1996.

I think our nefarious climatologists got a bugged version. It seemed to do the job but it created a hidden zip folder that archived all the data. By using this software all the Hadley people systematically selected the data and stored it. Only the most damming evidence got deleted with such care, so the archive seems to have been crafted by someone close to the data, with climatology skills and full knowledge of the manipulations. It was, they all were.
Then one of two things happen.

1) Its not an active bug just an archiving system. Its waiting for the cops to find it. However changes in the computer security at the UEA or Hadley, or an internal trigger based on time, 5 years are up, data size or a key word in the text trips it to send the zipped archive out. It emails the whole thing to an appropriate whistle blower site.
Or 2) It is a bugged eraser. The bugged eraser is no good if it doesn't have a place to phone home to. It could call its vice squad creator and report in. Yet since the program is not quite legal calling home directly is a problem. It needs to go via a set of re-mailers. Even in 1996 this part could be almost fully automated.

Either way our jaded cop turned spy may not at first know what he's got. Its not obviously illegal: not child or snuff porn; financial records or anything else he's familiar with. If its a bug he ignores it for years, it keeps getting updated, it keeps reporting in, he glances at it but takes no action. If its a robot it reports in in early 2009.

Then mid 2009 climate change is in the media. Its dominating the air waves, there's even a few mentions of the climate skeptics. Our cop connects the dots re-reads the emails and decides to do something with it. But what?

Ok the UEA is in the UK so one copy goes to the Attorney General's Office (AGO), or MI5 or Scotland yard. Nothing happens it probably gets ignored as a prank email. (Brits take note your homework is to ask around and find it.) Then a version goes to the BBC but again nothing happens.
The third attempt is to send it to Realclimate but unbeknown to our accidental climate skeptic its a mouth piece for the US end of Mike Mann's hockey team. (In it up to their necks with the CRU). Mmmm running out of ideas. Oh the first email is from Russia lets try that. Bingo! A server with a good reputation among cops and whistle blowers gets the file and the rest is history.
Cute. We have the conspirators crafting the evidence that will hang climate change. An unconnected party, probably a cop halfway around the world, posting the data. Strictly speaking he is a hacker and a vigilantly but he's untraceable. If he's ever asked he can claim that he was after legitimate criminals with semi-legal software (fully legal in some countries) and caught the CRU by accident. If the first copy went to the British government but was ignored he's off the hook. That's why we need to look.

Yes its a wild idea but it fits quite well.
It is probably just fiction. It would make a good TV episode. Oh boy its fun to think about.
Its also a warning, crime doesn't pay and software isn't always what it seems. I can't prove that there's any bugged eraser software out there. There probably should be.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Insert 'ti' above.

Spot the spelling mistake in the URL above. No one remembers to spell check URL's when they acquire them. I didn't and missed a T. I should blame Dyslexia but that's just an excuse. I just plain got lazy.

I'll probably leave it. Fixing it will be a hassle and pretending to be infallible is someone else's job. have a good laugh. If you want someone to find my site just tell them it search Applied Impossibilities that'll get it. Who spells out url's anyway. I can't even spell impossibilities.

Climategate is blowing up in the IPCC's face.

Governments are stuck. The people in the climate gate emails, 'the hockey team', are facing prosecution. There are hundreds of independent legal entities, state governors, provincial assemblies, quasi-autonomous government audit agencies like the Office of the Auditor General in the USA. The heads of state don't control them. They can and will sue. Private law suits have now also been filed. Forget the greenwash hogwash, the coal and oil industry will be lawyering up and ready to sue the IPCC into extinction.

The heads of state at Copenhagen can't go forward to sign the Copenhagen agreement and risk ridicule when the court find against the hockey team. The hockey team is the 42 odd people behind all the IPCC science. Backing this losing team is not just fatal to a politicians re-election chances; this can and will destroy many political parties.

However if they don't sign the brainwashed mob inside and outside the building at Copenhagen will openly rebel and riot. A million public servants world wide will join that rebellion in vain hopes of protecting their jobs.

We are seeing the collapse of a paradigm in real time. What took years in the past is happening in weeks. When academia put Galileo under house arrest for his views his supporters waged a quiet campaign to win the world with new navigation charts. Because he was right and the academics of his day were wrong; his charts were more accurate and more useful. They won shipping merchants and crews and won the day. Yet the process took years.

Like wise the Holy Roman Empire, a synthesis of royal and catholic church power, came to a catastrophic end with the rise of French republicanism and Napoleon. French atheism was far more ruthless than Protestantism and therefore could do what the reformation would not do. However that process took several years.

[When the Berlin wall fell many in eastern Europe were surprised but they had already lost faith in communism. This will be different.]

The events of this month will be like the shattering of a religion. The very idea of government managed and funded science will be called into doubt.

Millions will be shocked awake. Some will react with violence, some with silence, withdrawing from public view forever. Some unfortunately will suicide. Not since Nagasaki have we seen an ideology, the god Emperor Hirohito, broken so fast by the power atomic bomb.

Good climategate videos

These put things in perspective while helping clarify the details.

Lord Monckton on climategate.

Lord Monckton on Climategate at the 2nd International Climate Conference from CFACT on Vimeo.



Tim Ball. interviewed by James Corbett



Enjoy these resources.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Global warming is urban heat island warming

This is the simplest case for urban heat island (UHI) warming being most of the 'global' warming seen in the data.



And its fun to see a kid and his biologist dad showing how easy it is to show that the climate lobby has got it wrong.
In a few months time school kids world wide will be doing this and the expensive climate panic attack will be over.

Urban heat island is dismissed by the 'warmists' as a signal much less than global warming. UHI = 0.1 degree a decade verses 0.5 degrees a decade for global mean surface temperatures.

Here: Urbanization effects in large-scale temperature records, with an emphasis on China
P. D. Jones,
Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
D. H. Lister
Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Q. Li
National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008JD009916.shtml
and
http://www.warwickhughes.com/papers/90lettnat.htm

This looks at weather stations in China but others have noted that the raw-data from those weathers stations is not consistent with the claims.
http://climateaudit.org/2007/02/26/phil-jones-and-the-great-leap-forward/
and www.informath.org/apprise/a5620/b23.pdf
These areas were possibly disrupted by communist take over and the cultural revolution. Also China has industrialised and urbanised a few decades after the west as a consequence of some lessons learned in the west May have been applied to the Chinese cities. It turns out however that most of these rural weather stations weren't really rural enough and some of the data sets from china now can't be found, If they ever existed.

The real problem is sloppy weather station installation and management.
http://omniclimate.wordpress.com/2008/11/23/barbecue-climate-stations-reality-catches-up-with-fiction/
Various uncontrolled heat sources: parking areas, air-conditioners, uninsulated buildings, have crept up on the weathers stations Stevenson screens. The box the instruments are in. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stevenson_screen

This happens in many so called rural weather stations.
Jones et al may exclude a few big cities from their analysis in response to UHI but they don't check the environment on the ground.
That's been left up to a bunch of volunteers at http://www.surfacestations.org/
What are we paying the bureau of meteorology to do?

I feel the need to buy a camera and photograph a few local weather stations.