Saturday, August 28, 2021

Retaking Afghanistan with afghans.

Trump had a plan and Biden canceled it and botched it.

However parts of that plan may have been implemented. We now know that 80-95% of the air worthy aircraft was flown out of the country. And

So were the pilots and some of their family's. Those assets are still serving the Afghanistan vice President, now declared interim President, Amrullah Saleh and fighting back from the Panjshir valley. None of the Taliban air craft have been seen flying. One Taliban black hawk has been seen taxiing. There are reports that one crashed on attempted takeoff. They may all be sabotaged. 

Panjshir valley is the Northern alliance stronghold that never fell to the Taliban and never fell to the Soviets before that. The Northern Alliance defeated the Soviets and a previous Taliban government in Kabul. After that victory the Northern Alliance (NA) was expected to become the government with Ahmad Shah Massoud president however he was assassinated by an Al Qaeda film crew from Morocco. The bomb was in the camera. The NA wanted to kill the captured Taliban the US and UN prevented them taking the Taliban leaders to Guantanamo bay and afterwards releasing them in breach of the deal. The Panjshir valley is rich, its emerald mines date back to the Roman era and still yield 30% of the worlds emeralds. There are also huge stockpiles of weapons, vehicles and resources in those mines. Its military leader is Ahmud Massuod the son of Ahmud Shah Massoud. The son is trained at Sandhurst military academy in England.  

It also seems that the trusted half of the afghan army did not defect or flee but fell back to defensible positions in the mountains and then linked up with Saleh's Panjshir Resistance. Some used the ruse of waving Taliban flags to confuse and get through Taliban checkpoints. 

Army forces evacuating from the northern border states united with local police and militia to retaken Andarab in Baghlan province. They never had a Taliban presence in Sar-e Pol and Panjshir provinces. As forces moved to the entrance of the Panjshir valley their numbers became apparent and so they moved instead to take the northern half of Charikar, Parwan, Kapisa Provinces. The Bagram airbase is in Parwan Province. They have not tried to take Bagram though NATO still had a presence there at the time, three days ago. NATO may still have a presence at Bagram now. 

North of the border in Uzbekistan Abdul Rashid Dostum, who served on both sides of the soviet- afghan war and still has a personal army of 10000, is threatening to retake Kunduz and Balkh provinces. He has not yet crossed the border, as far as I know, but this forces the Taliban to hold thousands of troops at the northern borders with Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The Taliban was estimate to have had 99000 in 2016, and is now at 75000. Trump killed 24000! With 5000 known to be in Kabul province, 1000+ already dead in these retaken provinces and attacking the Panjshir Resistance in northern Parwan & Charikar.  

The Taliban must be spread wafer thin in the southern provinces. Local police and militia may already out number them. If an another attack on the Panjshir Resistance forces is launched from Kabul then that may mean the Taliban in Kabul is reduced to a number that matches the number of US troops at the airport. Retaking Kabul with the US forces already there may be an option. Biden would never try but Trump might and as election fraud evidence mounts the possibility exists for either or both congress and states to swear in Trump.  

So the Taliban may have none of the technology everyone thought it captured last week. 

If my estimates are right the 15000 strong Panjshir Resistance in Parwan, not counting Dostum's force, now matches the Taliban in Kabul and its immediate north. The Panjshir Resistance has some air support; the Taliban does not. US drones still fly in the region. Without US support the Panjshir Resistance may retake the country in a week. That may be the perfect solution. An afghan solution. The subsequent governments would be Tajik for a decade not Pashtun. That may have been part of the Trump plan all along. 

At the moment no-one but Indian equivalent of fox news is talking about it.