Showing posts with label End The FED. Show all posts
Showing posts with label End The FED. Show all posts

Thursday, August 04, 2011

What would a world of balanced books, balanced budgets and small governments look like in 2050 if the tea party won world wide?

The prerequisite for this is a stable gold based competing currency system with private mints and media based testing and verification of the coins, notes and digital accounts.

Most 'government' activities would be converted to charities with out a change of address or staff. Projects would be listed on web pages with a donate now button. The money donated comes from a bank account for the purpose. This account is a small or micro account that earns no interest because its not a term deposit. These donations are logged at the account and are tax deductible. The account would be topped up after a cell phone alert. Mixed with the free services an express service to paying customers might be added in the case of some non essential services. Immediate care for later voluntarism; paying with your own hands has been used in the third world often as an out growth of refugee and missionary work. It may come to the first world. The similarity to a co-op or mutual aid society should be noted.

Agencies that waste money wont get may donations. Agencies that are deemed unconstitutional will only get donations from their supporters and employees; that may be enough to keep them going but not enough for expansion. The productive wont subsidise the unproductive. The beseechers wont be rewarded at the expense of the producers.Those in true need will get help.

Long term private bond systems selling either to the public or to vested interest groups would cover  long term infrastructure including transport, ports, public parks, recreational and the fixed assets of police, courts, defence, civil defence, etc. Donations, tolls, rents and other usage fees would be accumulated to cover the bonds final payout. The option remains to allow fee access in many cases where donations are sufficient. If they are not then there is an error in how the public asset is operating. Some entities already bill people via their cell phone. Similar systems for large public recreational facilities, parking, camping, etc would be normal.

In the case of some RFID based toll systems the first few rides are free on a section of road you have never been on. Provision would be made for drivers to donate tips to working road crews, where they see them, electronically without stopping. By 2050 many vehicles will be fully robotic with toll functions automated and invisible.

There would be no huge unfunded pension liabilities such as social security and Medicare. Almost all people would have their own pension funds and medical insurance which are fully portable: not just interstate or inter job but internationally as well as nationally, perhaps trans-planetary given that some may no longer be living on planet earth.

Those that lack incomes would still have pensions and health care via charities that pay the premiums. Unemployment insurance would be cheaper because with a gold based competitive currency system there would be no booms or busts just steady growth at a sensible rate.  There may be fewer jobs building houses that a housing boom affords but there will be no risk of a bust either.  There may be some miscalculations leading to short term large scale losses where technology change, sudden disaster or the end of a fad ruins plans.

3D printed goods, digital matter and other equivalent technology would be cheap and nanofabricators might be available. These lower the cost of living for all making lower wages and smaller pension payments go further than they did in the inflation prone 20th century.

At the time of writing, 2011, new medical technology is coming on stream including adult stem cell cures for arthritic disorders, bone density loss, skin elastin loss, and diabetes. These treatments are cheaper than the many years of pharmaceuticals and doctors visits that they require. Cancer experts think that most cancers will be easily treatable by 2050. Robot cars will reduce road trauma to a fraction of the current rates. This means that most major drivers of rising medical costs. Gene-therapy for many rarer but very expensive disorders are being funded by aging billionaires; a dollar spent there saves five in later hospitalisation.

Defence might be significantly smaller, particularly the US military. I think some of the bases will still be out there in the world and several countries will still have a global reach. New techniques and new technologies coupled with a greater defensive focus, much more civil defence and robotic warfare will contribute to the shrinking of armies. The adult stem cell advances are already being used to repair the ware and tare that force many older soldiers to retire. Most don't leave because of combat injuries but because of strained joints and tendons due to the fitness regimen they must maintain. The cure of this problem coupled with robots carrying the heavy stuff will mean the average soldier wont be a teen or twenty something but will be much older men and women with the experience of decades. This will change war like nothing before it.

Politicians would still exist but their function would mostly be confined to media like functions of oversight, and law making not handling trillions of dollars of someone else's money. Campaign donations may still exist but will be much lower because most will be also donating directly to the genuine needy and other causes.  The politician is just another middleman. The pork barrel would be almost empty and those that want a free lunch at the governments expense would find life harder.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

A post Federal Reserve Bank World

The worlds banking system is in crisis. The Keynesian paradigm of fiat money and fractional reserve banking is dying. It has always failed but this time its smoke and mirrors tricks have failed to. They have printed too much money and broken the system.
If they end the FED then what do we do?
What does a post FED world look like. 


The key to an alternative is two conditions. 1. Open entry, anyone can make money but no one is obligated to accept it. and 2. Enforcement of contracts, no one can make false claims about or fraudulent valuations of their money. I might add a third: Public and media based testing and checking of these money's and contracts.
Assuming other central banks are also eliminated in the process.

1. Gold and silver currencies in many competing forms:
a. Gold backed electronic money for large and web transactions,This can now be done with bitcoin and ripple systems.
b. Gram weight metal in plastic cases that work like coins or credit cards I.E. Shire Silver,
c. Ounce weight metal barter coins,
d. Nickel and copper coins with a contractual valuation in gold or silver. Not both.
e. Large Dollar silver coins with a contractual value in silver and a embedded computer and screen that lists the current gold /silver value ratio.
In most places one currency with predominate with machines accepting other currencies and giving the local favoured currency.

2. Full reserve* banks with fewer offices but more digital and video phone to real staff interfaces. Several types of savings:
a. Target savings accounts. Money is not available on demand until the target is achieved. (I remember these from my youth.)
b. Term deposits with two days notice to withdraw. Mostly invested in mortgages and commercial loans.
c. Direct bond sales via the banks interface (computer, phone or auto-teller) with a receipt. These bonds do not pay annually, they are true bonds. This avoids borrowing short to cover long liabilities. You know for sure you have the bond. Bank holds the bond until you request it.
d. Credit and debit cards with small fees, higher but sustainable interest on the credit, none on the debit and higher default fees.
* It is possible to have contract based fractional reserve banks but these would need to recall and extinguish their note and contracts each time they lower their reserve provisions. These would be much higher risk but fee free.

3. Many more mutual funds. Operating as above.

4. Automatic digital transfer of remaining accounts from failed banks to other banks that the first bank must pre-nominate and contract with. Any remaining assets are transferred with the accounts. This eliminates bank runs and is largely the norm today but the accounts go to the biggest 5 creating the to big to fail problem. The system needs to spread transferred accounts more widely. The banks share holders take a full remaining loss. That'll teach them to avoid real-estate and other bubbles.

5. More peer to peer lending with legislation ensuring that the contracts are clear with no fine print. Defaulters get banned and get a poor rating that goes global across networks. This is unsecured lending but as the mortgage derivative debacle taught us, Banks don't always adequately secure the loans.

6. A law change so that companies can sell shares and micro shares via a web application or digital broker on their web site with another site handling resale's. No minimum limit on the size of a share sale thanks to digital tracking. The current limits, minimum share issues and brokerage practices are tied to out of date methods and paperwork systems.

7. Microshares are for very small web businesses with valuations in the fractions of a cent or via a virtual currency like SL Linden. Essentially the micro-transactions that were promised in the dot Com boom but got blocked by government meddling. Hence the bust.

8. Many charities will use targeted fund-raising with things like Indiegogo, Kickstarter and other crowd funding agencies. Assurance contracts and particularly Dominant Assurance Contracts can fund most public goods and could subsidise access for the genuine needy to private user-pays goods and services.

9. Law changes so some charities will sell bonds. The interest on the bond goes to the charity with the Donor retaining the ownership of the principle. He/she may choose to donate the principle fully to the charity after a time. This creates a permanent predictable interest based income for the charity to match on going needs and avoid fluctuations in donations. (Note: Not all charities today can invest donations long term. They must spend as they go; creating short term cash flow problems and thus a long term stability problem.)

Some of these solutions were not available before 1914 and therefore we can't talk of going back. New technologies eliminate some of the excuses for fractional reserve banking and fiat currency. They don't eliminate the bankers desire for a cartel that blocks out new players or gets government to cover their losses but it makes it harder if we take away their excuses.
It also wont eliminate the governments desire to spend beyond their means but again it eliminates the currency excuses. The new charity solutions and crowd funded public goods further reduce the need for government services which is why I list them.

Interest rates would be higher, Rarely going below 6%, Mortgages would match this limit. Some long term interest would be 3%. Most shops would have tools to check coins and web linked digital signs to up date everyone on the current ratio of the available currencies. Currency values would be stable overtime and productivity would be high 5 - 8 % but not spectacular. Spectacular GDP is be mostly fake where encountered. The exception would be rapidly developing new third world communities and space colonies.

It will be a very different world where we learn to judge money as a product and check its price and exchange rate as we go. Most shops will have tools help people in the transition. Your money will be safer than it is today allowing peoples plan to be fulfilled and not confused by government meddling.